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DTN Midday Grain Comments     12/13 11:05

   Wheat Leads Lightly Higher Grains Trade at Midday

   Wheat leads lightly higher trade at midday.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are higher at midday with the Dow futures up 
150 points. The interest rate products are higher. The dollar index is 22 
points lower. Energies are lower with crude down 40 cents. Livestock trade is 
mixed. Precious metals are firmer with gold up $6.70. 


   Corn trade is flat to 2 cents higher at midday with trade staying near the 
bottom of the range after scoring fresh lows Tuesday after the initial 
post-USDA report rally failed. The WASDE report had carryout at 2.437 billion 
bushels, down 50 million bushels from last month on ethanol production 
increases, with world stocks at 204.1 million metric tons, up 0.2 mmt from last 
month. The weekly ethanol report showed production down 19,000 barrels per day 
and stocks down 170,000 barrels with gasoline demand edging higher. Ethanol 
futures are flat at midday, remaining on the lows. On the March chart, support 
is the contract low at $3.47 1/2 printed Tuesday with resistance at the $3.53 
20-day moving average then the 50-day moving average at $3.58. 


   Soybean trade is flat to 3 cents higher midday with trade working at the 
lower end of the range yet again. Meal is flat to $1 higher, and oil is 25 to 
35 points lower. South American weather looks better with rains expected in the 
next seven days for some of the driest areas with trade watching closely for 
follow-up rains after that. The WASDE report raised domestic carryout to 445 
million bushels, up 20 mb from last month on slower exports, with world stocks 
at 98.3 million metric tons, up 0.4 mmt from last month. The export wire has 
been more active in recent days, with nothing announced on Wednesday. On the 
January chart, support is the 200-day at $9.76. Resistance is at the $9.93 


   Wheat trade is 3 to 5 cents higher at midday with trade finding light 
short-covering with trade hovering at the lower end of the range. The Plains 
are showing some better moisture in the longer-term forecast while remaining 
dry in the short term. The Australian harvest will be nearing effective 
completion soon. Russian remains the dominant origin in the world export 
markets, with some production estimates still rising for them. The WASDE report 
showed stocks at 960 million bushels, up 25 mb from last month, and world 
stocks at 268.4 million metric tons, up 0.9 mmt from last month. On the March 
KC contract, chart support is the $4.10 1/2 fresh contract low scored on 
Monday, with the 20-day at $4.28 noted chart resistance. 

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered Advisor.
He can be reached at 
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala


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