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DTN Midday Grain Comments     07/16 11:38

   Soybeans Leading Grains at Midday

   Soybeans are posting double-digit gains at midday, corn is flat, and wheat 
is weaker. 

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are mixed with the Dow up 5. The interest rate 
products are firmer. The dollar index is 20 points lower. Energies are weaker 
with crude down 2.65. Livestock trade is mixed with cattle leading. Precious 
metals are weaker with gold down $2.20.


   Corn trade is flat at midday with two-sided trade so far with generally 
positive trade during the day session. Cooler weather looks to hang around the 
next couple weeks. Ethanol board margins remain positive with some pressure 
from crude with ethanol futures edging higher to narrow blender margins. Corn 
basis has been flat to firmer in recent days with the lower board. The weekly 
export inspections were on the lower end of the range at 1.217 million metric 
tons. The weekly crop progress report is expected to show slightly lower 
conditions and maturity well ahead of normal. On the September chart we remain 
below the 10-day at $3.48, with the 20-day at $3.55 the next round up. Support 
is the fresh low of $3.37 scored yesterday with the lower Bollinger Band at 
$3.38 above that. 


   Soybean trade is finding good short covering this morning with soybeans 12 
to 16 cents higher at midday after fresh lows overnight. Meal is $6 to $7 
higher and oil 25 to 35 points lower. Brazil remains at a stout premium to US 
origin, which is compounded by the ongoing logistics issues with Brazil with 
premiums around $1.90 right now. Bean basis has remained steady with processors 
taking the lead. The daily export wire has remained quiet. Weather shouldn't be 
a major driver near term for soybeans but podfill will be here soon. Weekly 
export inspections were good seasonally at 635,429 metric tons. Weekly crop 
progress is expected to show slightly lower conditions with maturity well above 
normal. On the August chart, the 10-day at $8.43 is again the first level of 
resistance which we are still below at midday with further support the lower 
Bollinger Band at 8.11 with the next level resistance the 20-day at 8.63.


   Wheat trade is 4 to 8 cents lower at midday with trade struggling again to 
open the week. Harvest progress should continue to push along with the 
homestretch ongoing for the plains. Spring wheat should see good progress with 
Canada with drier weather showing up again. Russian harvest continues to move 
along as well with production estimates dropping another 3 million metric tons. 
HRW basis has remains solid through harvest with the better protein with 
offered premiums declining. The weekly export inspections improved at 469,523 
metric tons. Weekly crop progress is expected to show winter wheat harvest past 
70%, with spring conditions steady with conditions above normal. On the 
September chart, Kansas City was able to finish last week just below the 10-day 
moving average at $4.90 with the 20-day the next resistance at $4.93.

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered adviser. 
He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com 
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala


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