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DTN Midday Grain Comments     08/21 11:58

   Grains Lower at Midday

   Trade is lower across the board at midday.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   U.S. stock market indices are firmer with the Dow futures up 85. The 
interest rate products are firmer. The dollar index is 34 lower. Energies are 
mostly higher with crude up 0.80. Livestock trade is narrowly mixed. Precious 
metals are higher with gold up $.40.


   Corn trade is 1 to 2 cents lower in quiet midday trade with pressure 
spilling over again from the wheat while soybeans work sideways to lower. 
Ethanol margins remain tighter with corn at the upper end of the recent range 
and summer driving season winding down with ethanol futures sliding towards the 
1.30 area, along with cheap sugar hindering potential exports on the world 
market. Corn basis will likely continue to fade with more harvest activity 
building with the advanced crop across the South with more stability seen early 
this week. The Midwest crop tour has shown variable yields as expected so far 
with overall strong yields found in South Dakota and Ohio. The weekly crop 
progress/conditions showed conditions 2 percentage points lower to 68% good to 
excellent, and 12% poor to very poor, 85% in the dough, 13% ahead of normal, 
and 44% dented, 18% ahead of normal. On the December chart futures have support 
at the 50-day moving average at $3.74 which we have held after fading below the 
20-day at $3.78 on Monday. 


   Soybean trade is 4 to 7 cents lower with trade failing to hold the early day 
session bounce while still trading off the overnight lows. Meal is $2 to $3 
lower and oil is flat to 10 points lower. The crop tour will cover soybeans 
this week as well, but trade progress will probably be more supportive with the 
big yield numbers already out there and big pod counts confirmed so far.  Basis 
remains wide but has slowed the rate of erosion so far this week. The USDA 
announced 250,000 metric tons of new crop meal sold to unknown. Weekly crop 
progress was down 1 percentage point to 65% good to excellent, and 11% poor to 
very poor, and 91% setting pods, 8% ahead of average. On the November chart 
support is at the $8.90 20-day and 50-day, which we are below at midday with 
the lower Bollinger Band at 8.61 further support. Resistance is the $9.22 
two-month high.


   Wheat trade is 4 to 11 cents lower at midday with pressure continuing after 
the selling to start the week as export concerns calmed out of the Black Sea 
with aggressive movement continuing. Spring wheat harvest should continue to 
move along at a good clip with varied yields so far. The strong US dollar is 
keeping the U.S. less competitive on the world market but does appear to have a 
reversal in place today. Matif wheat is off again this morning. Australia 
remains on the dry side with the crop pace ahead of normal as well with some 
relief for some areas. Weekly crop progress showed 74% good to excellent and 5% 
poor to very poor on spring wheat with harvest 60% complete, vs. 44% on 
average, with 97% of winter wheat cut, 1 percentage point below average. On the 
December Kansas City chart we have support at the 100-day at 5.60, with 
resistance the 10-day at 5.81.

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered adviser. 
He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com 
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala


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